When Brock Lesnar and Alistair Overeem square off at UFC 141 on December 30, fans know exactly what they are going to get: two fighters with two very distinct styles of fighting.
Lesnar is a world-class wrestler who needs to take the fight to the ground to have a chance to win. Overeem is a world-class striker who needs to keep the fight standing to have a chance to win.
But of all the ways that this fight can go, the odds of it lasting all five rounds are slim-to-none, and Overeem is very conscious of that fact.
In an interview with Shoot Media, the former Strikeforce heavyweight champion said that there is virtually no way that both these men can fight for 25 minutes.
"I'm going to do what I do best. I expect him to do what he does best. This fight is not going to go the distance, that's one thing for certain," Overeem predicted. "Someone is going to get beat up. I'm going to do my best to make sure it's not me."
While Overeem likely does not have the stamina to fight a five-round fight against the best UFC has to offer, he is far more capable of pulling it off than Lesnar is. Overeem has actually had fights that have gone into the third round; Lesnar hasn't. Overeem, while fighting in K-1, has fought multiple times in one night; Lesnar hasn't.
Plus, and this is more important than any of those previous stats, Lesnar has not fought since October 2010 and is coming off major surgery in which he had 12 inches of his colon removed. To think that he is going to come into this fight in peak physical condition is ludicrous.
Overeem has the kind of striking ability that has given Lesnar fits in the past, and he will have more stamina than Lesnar in this fight—which means that an early finish is in store for Lesnar when this fight happens.
There is too much working against the former UFC heavyweight champion to think that he can contend with a fighter the caliber of Overeem. That is not to say that it is impossible for Lesnar to win, but the deck is stacked against him like it never has been before.
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